Good luck, bad luck, and ambiguity aversion
Briony Dawn Pulford
Poonam Gill
2381/29165
https://figshare.le.ac.uk/articles/journal_contribution/Good_luck_bad_luck_and_ambiguity_aversion/10146512
We report a series of experiments investigating the influence of feeling lucky or unlucky on people’s choice of known-
risk or ambiguous options using the traditional Ellsberg Urns decision-making task. We induced a state of feeling lucky
or unlucky in subjects by using a rigged wheel-of-fortune game, which just missed either the bankrupt or the jackpot
outcome. In the first experiment a large reversal of the usual ambiguity aversion effect was shown, indicating that feeling
lucky made subjects significantly more ambiguity
seeking
than usual. However, this effect failed to replicate in five
refined and larger follow-up experiments. Thus we conclude that there
is no evidence that feeling lucky reliably influences
ambiguity aversion. Men were less ambiguity averse than women when there were potential gains to be had, but there
were no gender differences when the task was negatively framed in terms of losses.
2014-10-17 12:15:58
Social Sciences
Psychology, Multidisciplinary
Psychology
ambiguity aversion
decision making
Ellsberg paradox
luck
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