A Unified Theory of Human Judgements and Decision-Making under Uncertainty
journal contributionposted on 10.05.2021, 09:55 by Raffaele Pisano, Sandro Sozzo
Growing empirical evidence reveals that traditional set-theoretic structures cannot in general be applied to cognitive phenomena. This has raised several problems, as illustrated, for example, by probability judgement errors and decision-making (DM) errors. We propose here a unified theoretical perspective which applies the mathematical formalism of quantum theory in Hilbert space to cognitive domains. In this perspective, judgements and decisions are described as intrinsically non-deterministic processes which involve a contextual interaction between a conceptual entity and the cognitive context surrounding it. When a given phenomenon is considered, the quantum-theoretic framework identifies entities, states, contexts, properties and outcome statistics, and applies the mathematical formalism of quantum theory to model the considered phenomenon. We explain how the quantum-theoretic framework works in a variety of judgement and decision situations where systematic and significant deviations from classicality occur.
This work was supported by QUARTZ (Quantum Information Access and Retrieval Theory), the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Innovative Training Network 721321 of the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme.
CitationPisano, R.; Sozzo, S. A Unified Theory of Human Judgements and Decision-Making under Uncertainty. Entropy 2020, 22, 738. https://doi.org/10.3390/e22070738
VersionVoR (Version of Record)
Science & TechnologyPhysical SciencesPhysics, MultidisciplinaryPhysicsquantum structuresconcept theorydecision theorycognitive fallaciesdisjunction effectEllsberg paradoxquantum modellinghistorical perspectivesCONJUNCTION FALLACYPROTOTYPE THEORYAMBIGUITYPROBABILITYDISJUNCTIONMODELRISKCOMBINATIONSFOUNDATIONSHEURISTICS