Manucript.pdf (1.11 MB)
Download file

Hedging and Speculative Pressures and the Transition of the Spot-Futures Relationship in Energy and Metal Markets

Download (1.11 MB)
journal contribution
posted on 16.12.2016, 14:51 by Jin Suk Park, Yukun Shi
This paper examines the impact of hedging and speculative pressures on the transition of the spotfutures relationship in metal and energy markets. We build a Markov regime switching (MRS) model where hedging and speculative pressures affect the transition probabilities between a stronger and weaker spot-futures relationship. It is found that hedging pressure increases the likelihood of transition, i.e. destabilises the existing spot-futures relationship, while speculative pressure reduces it, i.e. stabilises the relationship, in the copper, crude oil and natural gas markets, but this effect is relatively weak in the silver and heating oil markets. We also examine whether these findings generate practical benefits by testing the hedging effectiveness of the minimum variance hedge ratios (MVH) derived from the MRS models with hedging and speculative pressures. A relatively strong reduction of the portfolio variance, hedger’s utility and value at risk (VaR) is observed in the energy markets.

History

Citation

International Review of Financial Analysis, 2016

Author affiliation

/Organisation/COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES, ARTS AND HUMANITIES/School of Management

Version

AM (Accepted Manuscript)

Published in

International Review of Financial Analysis

Publisher

Elsevier

issn

1057-5219

Acceptance date

16/12/2016

Available date

23/06/2018

Publisher version

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521916301867

Notes

JEL classification: G13;The file associated with this record is under embargo until 18 months after publication, in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. The full text may be available through the publisher links provided above.

Language

en