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Multipopulation mortality modelling and forecasting: The weighted multivariate functional principal component approaches

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journal contribution
posted on 03.08.2022, 16:32 authored by Ka Kin Lam, Bo Wang

Human mortality patterns and trajectories in closely related populations are likely linked together and share similarities. It is always desirable to model them simultaneously while taking their heterogeneity into account. This article introduces two new models for joint mortality modelling and forecasting multiple subpopulations using the multivariate functional principal component analysis techniques. The first model extends the independent functional data model to a multipopulation modelling setting. In the second one, we propose a novel multivariate functional principal component method for coherent modelling. Its design primarily fulfils the idea that when several subpopulation groups have similar socio-economic conditions or common biological characteristics such close connections are expected to evolve in a non-diverging fashion. We demonstrate the proposed methods by using sex-specific mortality data. Their forecast performances are further compared with several existing models, including the independent functional data model and the Product-Ratio model, through comparisons with mortality data of ten developed countries. The numerical examples show that the first proposed model maintains a comparable forecast ability with the existing methods. In contrast, the second proposed model outperforms the first model as well as the existing models in terms of forecast accuracy.

History

Author affiliation

School of Mathematics and Actuarial Science, University of Leicester

Version

VoR (Version of Record)

Published in

Journal of Applied Statistics

Publisher

Taylor & Francis (Routledge)

issn

0266-4763

Acceptance date

12/07/2022

Copyright date

2022

Available date

03/08/2022

Language

en