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Near real-time input to a propagation model for nowcasting of HF communications with aircraft on polar routes

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journal contribution
posted on 03.08.2016, 09:50 by E. Michael Warrington, A. J. Stocker, D. R. Siddle, J. M. Hallam, H. A. H. Al-Behadili, N. Y. Zaalov, F. Honary, N. C. Rogers, D. H. Boteler, D. W. Danskin
There is a need for improved techniques for nowcasting and forecasting (over several hours) HF propagation at northerly latitudes to support airlines operating over the increasingly popular trans-polar routes. In this paper the assimilation of real-time measurements into a propagation model developed by the authors is described, including ionosonde measurements and total electron content (TEC) measurements to define the main parameters of the ionosphere. The effects of D region absorption in the polar cap and auroral regions are integrated with the model through satellite measurements of the flux of energetic solar protons (>1 MeV) and the X-ray flux in the 0.1–0.8 nm band, and ground-based magnetometer measurements which form the Kp and Dst indices of geomagnetic activity. The model incorporates various features (e.g., convecting patches of enhanced plasma density) of the polar ionosphere that are, in particular, responsible for off-great circle propagation and lead to propagation at times and frequencies not expected from on-great circle propagation alone. The model development is supported by the collection of HF propagation measurements over several paths within the polar cap, crossing the auroral oval, and along the midlatitude trough.

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Citation

Radio Science, 51, 2016, doi:10.1002/ 2015RS005880.

Author affiliation

/Organisation/COLLEGE OF SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING/Department of Engineering

Version

VoR (Version of Record)

Published in

Radio Science

Publisher

Wiley for American Geophysical Union (AGU)

issn

0048-6604

eissn

1944-799X

Acceptance date

01/07/2016

Copyright date

2016

Available date

03/08/2016

Publisher version

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015RS005880/abstract

Language

en

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