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Size Doesn't Really Matter: Ambiguity Aversion in Ellsberg Urns with Few Balls.

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journal contribution
posted on 10.02.2009, 16:39 by Briony D. Pulford, Andrew M. Colman
When attempting to draw a ball of a specified color either from an urn containing 50 red balls and 50 black balls or from an urn containing an unknown ratio of 100 red and black balls, a majority of decision makers prefer the known-risk urn, and this ambiguity aversion effect violates expected utility theory. In an experimental investigation of the effect of urn size on ambiguity aversion, 149 participants showed similar levels of aversion when choosing from urns containing 2, 10, or 100 balls. The occurrence of a substantial and significant ambiguity aversion effect even in the smallest urn suggests that influential theoretical interpretations of ambiguity aversion may need to be reconsidered.

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Citation

Experimental Psychology, 2008, 55 (1), pp. 31-37

Version

AM (Accepted Manuscript)

Published in

Experimental Psychology

Publisher

Hogrefe and Huber

issn

1618-3169

eissn

2190-5142

Copyright date

2008

Available date

10/02/2009

Publisher version

http://psycontent.metapress.com/content/l4j455762w252058/?genre=article&id=doi:10.1027/1618-3169.55.1.31

Language

en

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