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Use of implicit and explicit bayesian methods in health technology assessment

journal contribution
posted on 08.10.2015, 12:53 by Nicola J. Cooper, D. Spiegelhalter, Sylwia Bujkiewicz, Pascale Dequen, Alex J. Sutton
OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to examine the use of implicit and explicit Bayesian methods in health technology assessments and to identify whether this has changed over time. METHODS: A review of all health technology assessment (HTA) reports of secondary research published by the UK National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) between 1997 and 2011. Data were extracted on the use and implementation of Bayesian methods, whether defined as such by the original authors (i.e., explicit) or not (i.e., implicit). RESULTS: A total of 155 of 375 (41 percent) NIHR HTA reports, identified as relevant to this review, contained a Bayesian analysis. Of these, 128 (83 percent) contained an implicit Bayesian analysis, 3 (2 percent) an explicit Bayesian analysis and 24 (15 percent) both implicit and explicit Bayesian analyses. Of the twenty-seven reports that explicitly used Bayes theorem, only six included prior information in the form of (informative) prior distributions. Over time, the percentage of HTA reports that used Bayesian (implicit and/or explicit) methods increased from 0 percent in 1997 to nearly 80 percent in 2011. CONCLUSIONS: This review has shown that there has been an increase in the use of Bayesian methods in HTA, which is likely to be a result of the increase in freely available resources to implement the approach. Areas where Bayesian methods have the potential to advance healthcare evaluations in the future are considered in the discussion.

History

Citation

International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care, 2013, 29 (3), pp. 336-342

Author affiliation

/Organisation/COLLEGE OF MEDICINE, BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES AND PSYCHOLOGY/School of Medicine/Department of Health Sciences

Version

AM (Accepted Manuscript)

Published in

International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care

Publisher

Cambridge University Press (CUP): HSS Journals

eissn

1471-6348

Copyright date

2013

Available date

08/10/2015

Publisher version

http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=8955619&fileId=S0266462313000354

Language

en

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