Tonkin et al. (2017).pdf (189.17 kB)
Download file

Using offender crime scene behavior to link stranger sexual assaults: A comparison of three statistical approaches

Download (189.17 kB)
journal contribution
posted on 05.05.2017, 14:06 by Matthew J. Tonkin, T. Pakkanen, J. Siren, C. Bennell, J. Woodhams, A. Burrell, H. Imre, J. M. Winter, E. Lam, G. ten Brinke, M. Webb, G. Labuschagne, L. Ashmore-Hills, J. J. van der Kemp, S. Lipponnen, L. Rainbow, C. G. Salfati, P. Santtila
Purpose: This study compared the utility of different statistical methods in differentiating sexual crimes committed by the same person from sexual crimes committed by different persons. Methods: Logistic regression, iterative classification tree (ICT), and Bayesian analysis were applied to a dataset of 3,364 solved, unsolved, serial, and apparent one-off sexual assaults committed in five countries. Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis was used to compare the statistical approaches. Results: All approaches achieved statistically significant levels of discrimination accuracy. Two out of three Bayesian methods achieved a statistically higher level of accuracy (Areas Under the Curve [AUC] = 0.89 [Bayesian coding method 1]; AUC = 0.91 [Bayesian coding method 3]) than ICT analysis (AUC = 0.88), logistic regression (AUC = 0.87), and Bayesian coding method 2 (AUC = 0.86). Conclusions: The ability to capture/utilize between-offender differences in behavioral consistency appear to be of benefit when linking sexual offenses. Statistical approaches that utilize individual offender behaviors when generating crime linkage predictions may be preferable to approaches that rely on a single summary score of behavioral similarity. Crime linkage decision-support tools should incorporate a range of statistical methods and future research must compare these methods in terms of accuracy, usability, and suitability for practice.

History

Citation

Journal of Criminal Justice, 2017, 50, pp. 19-28

Author affiliation

/Organisation/COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES, ARTS AND HUMANITIES/Department of Criminology

Version

AM (Accepted Manuscript)

Published in

Journal of Criminal Justice

Publisher

Elsevier

issn

0047-2352

Acceptance date

06/04/2017

Copyright date

2017

Available date

18/04/2019

Publisher version

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047235217300697

Notes

The file associated with this record is embargoed until 24 months after the date of publication. The final published version may be available through the links above.

Language

en

Usage metrics

Categories

Keywords

Exports